The data of cities

A fascinating article in The Economist:

 

… Carlo Ratti, who heads the Senseable City Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was one of the first to sift through the data produced by telecoms networks. One aim was to find out how a country’s internal borders reflect human connections. In Britain the English and the Scots hardly talk, at least on landlines; west of London, where many of Britain’s high-tech firms are based, a new region is developing. American states such as Georgia and Alabama belong together, whereas California splits three ways. In Portugal, if a city is twice the size of another, people make 12% more phone calls per head…

 

The Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA) at University College London, another research hotbed, uses data from London’s Oyster cards—used to pay for public transport—and Twitter messages. Tube-travel patterns are regular: entering the system at one station tends to mean leaving it at a particular other one. Twitter messages reveal a city’s structure and its activity. London has one centre, near Piccadilly Circus; New York has several, including near Times Square, City Hall and in Brooklyn. Tweeting correlates negatively with greenery, particularly in Central Park…

 

Definitely worth a look.,

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The life of an analyst, in charts

Elisabeth Fosslien’s “14 ways an economist says ‘I love you’” did the rounds of the blogosphere around Valentine’s Day, and her latest, “Portrait of the young grad as an analyst” is even better.

 

“Analyst” is a very broad job description — as Fosslien wryly notes, it means “your family and friends have no idea what you do at work” — and my job is a bit different from the one depicted, but enough of it rang true to make me laugh. I articularly enjoyed:

 

The Roadblocks

 

The Work

 

And most of all:

 

The Bonds Created by Time of Day in Office

(Hat tip to Freakonomics Blog)

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Why the West industrialised before the rest: David Landes’ The Wealth and Poverty of Nations; Kenneth Pomeranz’s The Great Divergence

Still in search of why the Industrial Revolution occurred, why it came first in Britain, and why the West beat the Rest to the punch, I turned to two more books: David Landes’ The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, and Kenneth Pomeranz’s The Great Divergence. Written in very different styles, and offering very different explanations, I’m glad to have read them together.

 

Please note I am not an expert in the topics covered by these books; rather, my perspective is that of an interested lay reader.

 

The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: Why Some Are So Rich and Some So Poor, by David S Landes (1998, my edition 1999)

 

Landes offers, by and large, the “classic” explanation. Europe, he argues, built its Industrial Revolution on the back of (1) the Scientific Revolution (in contrast to the Islamic and Chinese worlds) that led to the creation of power technology; and (2) supply and demand making it practical to use that technology. That demand was for cotton; according to Landes, despite waterwheel-powered silk spinning machines existing long, long before, it could not have been done with that material due to its higher cost and hence, more limited demand. But with cotton, Landes writes, “the growth of the textile industry was beginning to outstrip labor supply,” and power machinery, installed in factories, was just the answer.

 

In turn, Landes argues that Britain industrialised before the rest of Europe for several reasons: greater pre-industrial purchasing power and a higher standard of living, which encouraged “a manufacture that aimed at a large national and international market and focused on standardized goods of moderate price—just the kind that lent themselves to machine production”; and culture and institutions – i.e. blessed with the Protestant ethic, relatively greater liberty and less religious persecution than the Continent, etc.

 

Just as classic is Landes’ explanation for the failure of imperial China to industrialise. He claims despite the enterprising spirit of its people, it was closed-minded to science, stifled by hidebound mandarins whose “cultural triumphalism combined with petty downward tyranny” – the comparison with Pomeranz’s view, of which we’ll soon see more, is striking. However, Japan is a different story. Landes believes (though, he says, “with no way of proving this”) that “even without a European industrial revolution, the Japanese would sooner or later have made their own” based on rising economic productivity, a cottage cotton industry, the work ethic of Edo-era merchants  and more. The following description is worth quoting in full:

 

We have the inventory of a village “general store” in 1813. The variety of goods is astonishing, some of them distinctive markers of an economy in an advanced preindustrial stage: thus a large range of manufactures, including hardware and garments that farm households had once made for themselves; and writing implements and paper in a country where literacy was not easy to come by. One could not at that date have found such a store in the Continental European countryside, except perhaps in the watchmaking districts of Switzerland.

 

As a last note, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations benefits from brisk, punchy prose (though watch out for the odd broadsides fired at rival intellectual schools!), and beyond being an economic history, it also makes for an interesting read about world history.

 

At the bottom of this post, I’ll return to evaluating this book; for now, we’ll see how the other title differs.

 

The Great Divergence: China, Europe and the Making of the Modern World Economy, by Kenneth Pomeranz (2000)

 

Taking the opposite approach to Landes, Pomeranz argues that differences between institutions market structures, attitudes to women working, living standards, etc, cannot explain the divergence between Europe, China, and Japan, because the advanced regions within each (respectively, Britain, the lower Yangzi, and the Kanto and Kinai regions) were far too similar. All had similar forms of business organisation, and the early stages of industrialisation anyway did not have the same capital requirements as railroads did later. All were open to commerce. All were relatively prosperous (here, the same Japanese general store cited by Landes makes a return!), and all had elites who sniped at commoners’ consumerism:

 

Mirrors, clocks, furniture, framed pictures, china, silverware, linen, books, jewelry, and silk clothing, to name just a few items, all became increasingly “necessary” signs of status for well-off western Europeans…

China also became increasingly crammed with paintings, sculptures, fine furniture, and so on… and as wealth could increasingly be converted to status through consumption (rather than through buying office, or land, or education for one’s children), published guidebooks began to offer advice on how to evaluate and display such objects properly…

By the eighteenth century [in Japan, there were] strictures against ‘gold, silver and ivory’ decorations in the homes of peasants and complaints about how samurai and even daimyo had been ruined attempting to keep up with the consumption habits of wealthy commoners.

 

And, Pomeranz argues, they all faced similar ecological constraints: they could very well all have ended up in a “proto-industrial cul-de-sac”, where  “the basic production and consumption of textiles, though often cited as the onset of ‘industrialisation’, could not have changed that path, since it offered no solution to a basic quandary: that the production of food, fibre, fuel and building supplies all competed for increasingly scarce land”.

 

How, then, did the West break out of that cul-de-sac? As far as Pomeranz is concerned, Europe – or, rather, Britain – lucked out. First, says Pomeranz, Britain had plentiful coal deposits that were close to its industrial heartland, whereas China’s coal deposits, in the northwest, were on the wrong side of the country from its most prosperous regions. Second, Britain benefited from access to the New World, which supplied calories (in the form of sugar – mass imports of North American grain only began well after the Industrial Revolution) and fibre (cotton), and thus freed it from the constraints of limited domestic land.

 

A note on readability – this is a crunchy academic work, not a lively popular history, and it reads as such. For a boiled-down version of Pomeranz’s thesis, you can check out Columbia University’s “Asia for Educators” page.

 

My assessment

 

For a reader looking for an introduction to the topic, I think the Landes book is well worth a look. It’s easy to read and provides a good overview of the “traditional” view. Landes’ tendency to stake out his beliefs is useful for someone who may not be aware of which issues are controversial to begin with! It doesn’t hurt that Landes’ asides are often just as thought-provoking as the main story. For example, as a free-trader myself, Landes deserves credit for making me sit back and think, when he points out the flaw in the textbook use of comparative advantage to dismiss concern about domestic industry: “today’s comparative advantage may not be tomorrow’s.” However, I would definitely want corroboration before accepting his description of, in particular, China’s economy/society.

 

And that takes us to Pomeranz’s book. On the face of it, his theory – and the underlying assertions that the richest parts of China had institutions the equal of Britain’s – are mutually exclusive with Landes’ arguments about European institutional/economic advantages. Which could be right?

 

Criticisms of Pomeranz’s thesis fall into three categories – disputes about the data underpinning his conclusions, disagreements with his logic, and those that are both (e.g. does he give adequate shrift to the acceleration of Western technological progress?). And while I might not be qualified to judge the former, I do find some of the latter to be convincing. For example, Pomeranz doesn’t explain why other Western countries – including coal-poor, water-power-rich France – plus Japan, but no other non-Western country, were able to follow Britain into the industrial age. Still, his ideas remain interesting, and I was particularly fascinated by his description of Chinese commerce and society, so far removed from the caricatures of oriental despotism. Given the density of Pomeranz’s book, I would hesitate to recommend it to a casual reader, but I found it a rewarding read all the same.

 

Am I fully convinced by either? Well, for one, does it have to be one or the other? Who’s to say that a future author will not be able to reconcile the two theses? Maybe a future author already has; Ian Morris’s claim that trade across the North Atlantic stimulated Western European inventiveness makes much more sense to me after reading about one area in which Pomeranz and Landes agree: the marvels of Western “instruments – clocks, watches, telescopes, eyeglasses, etc.” Certainly I feel enlightened by both, and that’s what matters.

 

For a specialist’s take on these two books, I refer you to economist Brad DeLong’s reviews, here and here.

 

You can buy The Wealth and Poverty of Nations from Amazon US here.

 

You can buy The Great Divergence from Amazon US here.

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Steve Jobs 1955 – 2011

When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: “If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you’ll most certainly be right.” It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: “If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?” And whenever the answer has been “No” for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.

Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure – these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.

About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didn’t even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctor’s code for prepare to die. It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought you’d have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months. It means to make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.

I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated, but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and I’m fine now.

This was the closest I’ve been to facing death, and I hope it’s the closest I get for a few more decades. Having lived through it, I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept:

No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don’t want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life’s change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.

Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life. Don’t be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people’s thinking. Don’t let the noise of others’ opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.

Source: http://news.stanford.edu/news/2005/june15/jobs-061505.html

 

RIP Steve Jobs.

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What traditional agriculture has to do with female labour force participation

 

I love to discover why something is the way it is, and my favourite historical reads are often those that deliver this kind of “big picture” revelation. It was in this vein that, a while back, I discussed research on the relationship between “rainfall, human capital, and democracy”. Now this week comes a fascinating article in The Economist, highlighting recent research* which set out to:

 

… test the hypothesis that traditional agricultural practices influenced the historic gender division of labor and the evolution and persistence of gender norms. We find that, consistent with existing hypotheses, the descendants of pre-industrial societies that practiced plough agriculture, today have lower rates of female participation in the workplace, in politics, and in entrepreneurial activities, as well as attitudes reflecting gender inequality.

 

How does this connection work? The authors sum up the original hypothesis as follows:

 

Shifting cultivation, which uses hand-held tools like the hoe and the digging stick, is labor intensive and women actively participate in farm work. Plough cultivation, by contrast, is much more capital intensive, using the plough to prepare the soil. Unlike the hoe or digging stick, the plough requires significant upper body strength, grip strength, and burst of power, which are needed to either pull the plough or control the animal that pulls it. Because of these requirements, when plough agriculture is practiced, men have an advantage in farming relative to women (Murdock and Provost, 1973a). Also reinforcing this gender-bias in ability is the fact that when the plough is used, there is less need for weeding, a task typically undertaken by women and children (Foster and Rosenzweig, 1996). In addition, child care, a task almost universally performed by women, is most compatible with activities that can be stopped and resumed easily and do not put children in danger. These are characteristics that hold for hoe agriculture, but not for plough agriculture, especially if animals are used to pull the plough.

 

To test this, the authors compared data on pre-industrial plough usage against modern-day data on gender attitudes and female labour force participation. As a cross-check, they also looked at the climactic suitability of “plough-positive” crops (wheat, rye, barley) vs “plough-negative” crops (sorghum, millet). Both produced results consistent with the theory: “individuals, ethnicities and countries whose ancestors used the plough today have beliefs that exhibit greater gender inequality today and women participate less in non-domestic activities, like market employment, entrepreneurship, and politics.” Second-generation female immigrants to the US were affected by plough usage in their ancestral countries, providing evidence for cultural transmission of beliefs (rather than simply being driven by the institutions of the host country).

 

Obviously no one factor can comprehensively explain gender roles, but I wager historical plough usage is one that few non-specialist observers would associate with the topic. The Economist article linked above is a fascinating read, even if you don’t go onto the original paper.

 

* “On the Origins of Gender Roles: Women and the Plough”, by Alberto Alesina of Harvard University, Paola Giuliano of the University of California Los Angeles, and Nathan Nunn of Harvard University.

 

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Book review: Adapt, by Tim Harford

Please note I am not an expert in the topics covered by this book; rather, my perspective is that of an interested lay reader.

 

Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure, by Tim Harford (2011): At the very top of the cover of my edition of Adapt, a blurb proclaims, “Tim Harford could well be Britain’s Malcolm Gladwell”, and that is a very apt analogy to describe this book. Harford is an economist and Financial Times columnist, but here he tackles themes that reach well outside the business world: open-mindedness, flexibility, innovation, resilience. Similarly to Gladwell, the book cites a wide range of examples: the US Army in Iraq (used to illustrate organisational design/hierarchy); contests such as the Ansari X-Prize (encouraging innovation); randomised trials in development aid (decision-making based on evidence); nuclear power stations and the financial sector (how to engineer systems for resilience), and more. And similarly to Gladwell, it’s written in a lively, popular style. I’ve enjoyed Harford’s writing since I read his earlier The Undercover Economist, which used economics to explain everyday questions such as “why does my coffee cost so much?”, while I was finishing university, and this book didn’t disappoint me. I had a passing familiarity with some of the topics discussed and thus didn’t learn anything radically new, but I was able to learn more about those issues (and pick up some useful trivia), while being alternately inspired, depressed, and entertained. Well worth a look.

 

You can buy Adapt from Amazon here.

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Two books on the history of human civilisation: Civilization, by Niall Ferguson; Why the West Rules – For Now, by Ian Morris

Conquest and imperialism have been part of human history since the first caveman speared his rival in a fight over a hunk of mammoth meat, and they reached their zenith with the European powers of the nineteenth century. But why was it Europeans, not Chinese or Indians or Africans or Native Americans? And why, now, do we still live in a world where the largest economy is that of the United States, whose popular culture and international system were shaped by Westerners, and where I am writing this post in English? It was with these questions in mind that I read two books, Niall Ferguson’s Civilization and Ian Morris’ Why The West Rules – For Now, and while neither truly answered me, one turned out to be a fantastically worthwhile read anyway.

 

Please note I am not an expert in the topics covered by these books; rather, my perspective is that of an interested lay reader.

 

Civilization: The West and the Rest, by Niall Ferguson (2011): This book purports to be about how six “killer apps” (competition, science, property rights, medicine, consumerism and the Protestant work ethic) allowed Westerners to conquer the rest of the world. None of these ideas is radically new, but given the author’s talents as a narrative historian (see my review of The Ascent of Money), I was looking forward to, at the very least, a gripping argument. Unfortunately, I was disappointed. Unlike The Ascent of Money, where yarns, vignettes and data all helped illustrate a central organising theme (finance throughout history), in Civilization they just turn the book into a combination of trivia grab bag and all-purpose authorial soapbox. It doesn’t help that Civilization’s strongest chapter, its conclusion, is an expanded version of a speech that you can find elsewhere on the web for free. I do not believe this is Professor Ferguson’s best book, and I would advise prospective readers to seek out his other work (such as the speech linked above) instead.

 

You can buy Civilization: The West and the Rest from Amazon here.

 

Why the West Rules – For Now: The Patterns of History and What They Reveal About the Future, by Ian Morris (2010): Now this is epic, big-picture history. Its subject is nothing less than human social development (both technological and organisational), as seen through the lens of European, Middle Eastern and Chinese history. Spanning the tens of thousands of years all the way from prehistory to the present day, it effectively picks up where Jared Diamond’s Guns, Germs and Steel left off, right down to pursuing an argument that “maps, not chaps”, are the ultimate drivers of history. Great men, blundering idiots and dumb luck may well decide the fate of empires, argues Professor Morris, but they are ultimately second to structural factors in the grand scheme of progress. The last section of the book, which turns to futurology, tends to be overlooked by reviewers who focus on “why the West rules”  — but this is their mistake, because this is where Prof Morris points out that extrapolating the exponential progression of the last couple of centuries gives the lie to conventional arguments that “the future will look much like the present, but with a richer China”. For a book on human social development, an examination of a possible Singularity or environmental cataclysm makes for the perfect conclusion.  To cap things all off, the book is extremely lively and readable. I would highly recommend it for any lay reader interested in history.

 

You can buy Why the West Rules – For Now: The Patterns of History and What They Reveal About the Future from Amazon here.

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Optimism, 140 characters at a time

Interested in a curated feed of the most interesting news, knowledge and research around the Web? Check out my Twitter account (@PeterSahui), or click the button below!

 
Follow PeterSahui on Twitter

 

(At this stage, the plan is to update the Twitter feed every day or every few days, whenever I discover something worth highlighting. I’ve been refining my concept for this website and I may use this for longer pieces – essays, reflections, reviews, and so on – while using Twitter as my main channel for highlighting links. Keep checking back!)

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Here’s a fascinating blog on economic history – Bloomberg’s “Echoes”

So I’ve taken a bit of a break from reading non-fiction – the last non-fiction book I finished was Niall Ferguson’s Civilization: The West and the Rest, about a month ago. (Stay tuned for the review!) Since then, I’ve been slowly progressing through Power and Plenty: Trade, War and the World Economy in the Second Millennium, a crunchy academic history written by Ronald Findlay and Kevin H O’Rourke, and quite enjoying it; however, I’m still only about 2/3rds of the way through.

 

I have, however, been keeping up with my news sites. And so, when Bloomberg News introduced Echoes, an economics history blog, as part of its brand-new site revamp, I sat up and took notice. In its first few days of existence, Echoes has already touched on the potential parallels between oil-rich post-communist Russia and post-revolution Arab states; flat taxes in Eastern Europe (then) and in the Middle East (possibly in the future); and on a debate as to whether oil breeds a male-dominated labour force. If this sounds interesting, head over and give the blog a look!

Posted in History, Societies | 1 Comment

Three books on the history of finance and trade: Conquest, Tribute, and Trade, by Howard J Erlichman; Vermeer’s Hat, by Timothy Brook; The Ascent of Money, by Niall Ferguson

Over the last year or so, I’ve become increasingly fascinated by economic and financial history. How trade forms bridges between civilisations; how empires funded their wars; how new things made their way into the homes and lives of ordinary people – I believe that these topics are every inch as important in understanding history as the more usual tales of Great Leaders and Epic Battles. Below,  I review three “narrative”-type books on this area: Conquest, Tribute, and Trade, by Howard Erlichman; Vermeer’s Hat, by Timothy Brook; and The Ascent of Money, by Niall Ferguson.

 

Please note I am not an expert in the topics covered by these books; rather, my perspective is that of an interested lay reader.

 

Conquest, Tribute, and Trade: The Quest for Precious Metals and the Birth of Globalisation, by Howard J Erlichman (2010): I went into this book knowing only the bare bones about its subject matter, world trade and the birth of the European overseas empires in the 16th century, and sadly, I finished it in much the same state. The problem for me was, this book presents history as “one thing after another” – it offers up a sea of dates and details, but little in the way of narrative or context. Those lessons I did take away– in particular, the disastrous finances of the Hapsburg monarchs – were often the result of certain events, such as Spanish sovereign defaults, being repeated over and over again. The book does not even have a concluding chapter: the flow of facts simply stops when it reaches the early 1600s. I think my unfamiliarity with the book’s subject matter did not help, and I did get the sense that a more knowledgeable reader might have gotten more out of the book than I. Still, I cannot recommend this book to my fellow lay readers.

 

You can buy Conquest, Tribute and Trade from Amazon here.

 

Vermeer’s Hat: The Seventeenth Century and the Dawn of the Global World, by Timothy Brook (2008): This book starts with everyday items in Dutch paintings of the 1600s – a fur hat, a porcelain bowl, some silver coins – and traces them back across the world: the fur in the hat comes from North America, where we meet Samuel Champlain as he takes his arquebus against Mohawk warriors; the porcelain bowl from China, where it could be tailored for European tastes; the silver from the Americas, where it could be taken to Manila and traded for Chinese goods. I really enjoyed this book as a glimpse into the changing lives and mindsets of Europeans, Ming Chinese, and others of the era. Recommended as an introductory read.

 

You can buy Vermeer’s Hat from Amazon here.

 

The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World, by Niall Ferguson (2008): The companion book to a TV series, this examines several themes in finance – credit; stock markets; insurance; housing markets and more – through a variety of historical yarns. The author is a very good storyteller, and it shows as he gives era after era a human face. I walked away having learned a little about the Confederate States trying to borrow money secured by cotton; a little about the Scotsman who, according to Ferguson, “invented the stock market bubble” in eighteenth-century France;  a little about the profligate lifestyle of a nineteenth-century duke; a little about twentieth-century US property busts; and so much more. While this is not a serious reference book, I’d recommend it for someone looking for a readable introduction to finance throughout history.

 

You can buy The Ascent of Money from Amazon here.

Posted in History, Reviews | Tagged , | 2 Comments